Group risk: The probability of a disaster in the Netherlands by branch, 2001
Overview of the probability of a disaster in the Netherlands by branch, and for various numbers (ten, 100) of casualties.
The probability of a disaster in the Netherlands by branch
The probability of a disaster with fatal casualties varies from branch to branch. And the probability of disasters of varying sizes is different for each branch. For example, in the case of the companies obliged to produce safety reports, the probability of an accident with ten or more deaths is once in 3,000 years, and the probability of a larger accident with more than 1,000 deaths is estimated to be once in 40 million years.
The probability of an accident with 10 or more deaths
Comparatively speaking, the probability of an accident with ten or more deaths is highest in the case of airports: once in 600 years. For road haulage, this probability is once in 1,400 years; it is once in 3,000 years for companies obliged to produce safety reports and once every 25,000 years for railway marshalling yards. For all sectors taken together, the probability of a disaster with at least ten fatal casualties is once in 300 years. Most of this risk is therefore accounted for by aviation and the transport of hazardous substances, mainly LPG.
Definition of group risk
The group risk is the probability of a disaster in which a proportion of the people present are killed. The level of risk that is still considered acceptable depends on the size of the disaster. An accident with 100 deaths results in more disruption, suffering and grief than an accident with ten fatal casualties. The limit set for the probability of a disaster with 100 deaths is therefore one hundred times lower than for a disaster with ten deaths.
- See 'External safety risks: the probability of an accident' for a more detailed discussion of risks, causes and policy.
Companies covered by the external safety policy
Examples of the type of company covered by the external safety policy are: airports, railway marshalling yards, LPG stations and large chemical companies. Companies that constitute a major risk because they use large quantities of dangerous substances such as chlorine are obliged to produce safety reports. They are usually large chemical companies. In a 'safety report', a company describes - in accordance with statutory regulations - itself, the measures taken to reduce and manage risks, and other items. A report of this kind has to be submitted to the government authorities - the province or the municipality - every five years or if there are major changes at the company (VROM, 1993 and 1999).
