Local risk in the Netherlands, 2001
The area in the Netherlands where the standard for local risk is exceeded as a result of the presence of high-risk companies. The number of people in these areas at risk of an accident with fatal consequences.
| Source of risk | Local risk (per year) | |||
| > 1 in 100 000 (10-5) | > 1 in 1 million (10-6) | > 1 in 10 million (10-7) | > 1 in 100 million (10-8) | |
| Number of people exposed | ||||
| Companies obliged to produce safety reports1) | 47 | 800 | 22 000 | 149 000 |
| LPG stations | . | 14 000 | 370 000 | 790 000 |
| Railway marshalling yards2) | - | 3 000 | 40 000 | 168 000 |
| Airports3) | 790 | 19 000 | 112 000 | . |
| Land use (km2) | ||||
| Companies obliged to produce safety reports1) | 26 | 83 | 212 | 489 |
| LPG stations | 2 | 12 | 208 | 415 |
| Railway marshalling yards2) | - | 3 | 17 | 62 |
| Airports3) | 5 | 30 | 142 | . |
| Rail transport4) | - | 4 | 146 | 678 |
| Pipelines5) | . | 460 | . | . |
| Transport by road | - | 21 | 580 | 1 500 |
| Source: RIVM. | RIVM/EDC/Oct02 | |||
| 1) The data come from the compulsory safety reports. The data used here are a maximum of twelve years old, whereas the rules require a safety report to be submitted every five years. As a result of the implementation of the 1999 Risk of Serious Accidents Decree (BRZO-1999), companies had to submit new safety reports in 2001. However, these data were not yet available in 2002. 2) Based on data from Action Plan for Goods Railyards, 1991. 3) Basic principles derived from ABEL conference, Utrecht, 22 April 1998. 4) Risicoatlas Spoor. Vervoer van gevaarlijke stoffen over de vrije baan, DHV, Regnr. ML-TB20010416, 2001. 5) NV Nederlandse Gasunie, Risico's wegtransport gevaarlijke stoffen, AVIV, Project no. 9632, 1997. | ||||
Standard for local risk imposes restrictions on house building
The current standard for local risk (VROM, 2001) means that house building is no longer permitted in an area of approximately 600 km2, almost 2% of the Netherlands. At these locations, the probability of a fatal accident caused by a company obliged to produce safety reports, a railway marshalling yard, airport, LPG station or transport by road is greater than 1 in 1 million per year (10-6) and therefore not acceptable. The area outside company premises for each type of company is:
- all companies obliged to produce safety reports: 83 km2 in total;
- railway lines and railway marshalling yards: 7 km2;
- airports: 30 km2;
- transport by road: 21 km2;
- LPG stations: 12 km2;
- and for the large Dutch gas pipelines: 460 km2.
At present, at least 37,000 people live in these areas (the first part of the table). These are therefore all the people exposed to a risk in excess of 1 in 1 million. For 19,000 people, this risk is accounted for by aviation; for 14,000, the risk is attributable to LPG stations.
Note on local risk
The local risk is the probability of an imaginary person being killed in a particular place as a result of an accident in a company. It is therefore not important here to know whether a person is actually present.
Policy
In the Netherlands, the government has determined that the local risk must not, in principle, exceed 1 in 1 million. So the probability that an imaginary person permanently present at the location in question for a year (the location for which the risk has been calculated) will suffer a fatal accident as a result of a company or transportation accident must not be greater than once in a million years. This target must have been achieved no later than 2010. There are a few exceptions to this rule. For example, if international obligations make it impossible. An example would be the free access of shipping via the Western Scheldt to Antwerp.
This means that the living environment of at least 37,000 people will have to become safer. The aim of the policy is to reduce the risks so that the standard is met for these existing homes by 2010. The temporary exceedance (until 2010) of the standard of 1 in 1 million is therefore permitted. Exceedances of 1 in 100,000 will, three years after the new regulations come into effect, no longer be permitted.
- See 'External safety risks: the probability of an accident' for a more detailed discussion of risks, causes and policy.
