External safety risks around Schiphol airport, 1990-2001
| 1990 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | |
| Local risk | numbers of exposed homes | |||||
| > 10-5/year | 7 | 20 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 21 |
| > 10-6/year | 787 | 1 851 | 1 551 | 2 050 | 1 948 | 1 813 |
| > 10-7/year | 7 908 | 11 942 | 12 081 | 11 879 | 13 880 | 16 155 |
| Local risk | numbers of exposed inhabitants | |||||
| > 10-5/year | 15 | 50 | 61 | 61 | 58 | 48 |
| > 10-6/year | 1 731 | 3 899 | 3 183 | 4 297 | 3 975 | 4 089 |
| > 10-7/year | 17 398 | 23 666 | 24 427 | 22 982 | 27 000 | 32 113 |
| Local risk | exposed area (km2) | |||||
| > 5.10-5/year | 0.30 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.48 | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| > 10-5/year | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| > 10-6/year | 6.8 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 10.3 | 10.4 |
| > 10-7/year | 37.7 | 47.8 | 48.8 | 48.7 | 52.4 | 52.5 |
| Group risk | probability of accident (per year) | |||||
| > 10 deaths | 3.9?10-4 | 5.0?10-4 | 5.2?10-4 | 5.3?10-4 | 5.7?10-4 | 6.0?10-4 |
| > 100 deaths | 1.1?10-5 | 5.1?10-6 | 3.3?10-7 | 6.0?10-6 | 1.0?10-5 | 1.4?10-5 |
| Source: RIVM. | RIVM/EDC/Oct02 | |||||
Developments in safety risks around Schiphol airport
Almost 4,100 people in the vicinity of Schiphol were exposed in 2001 to an unacceptable risk (more than 1 in 1 million) of dying as a result of an accident at the airport. That is virtually the same number as in the two previous years.
In addition to this local risk, the group risk can also be taken into account (the bottom two rows of figures). It then emerges that the probability of a disaster with ten or more deaths has increased steadily and slowly since 1990 from once every 2,600 years to once every 1,700 years. The probability of an accident with a larger group of 100 or more deaths has returned, after a temporary fall, to about the level of 1990. The situation around Schiphol continues to be decidedly worse than in 1990.
What determines the probability of an accident around Schiphol?
The probability of a severe accident around Schiphol is determined by the volume of air traffic, the safety of the aeroplanes and the vulnerability of the surrounding area. The last of these factors depends in particular on the distribution of the population around the airport and the positioning of housing with respect to flight routes.
Note on local risk
The local risk is the probability of an imaginary person being killed in a particular place as a result of an accident in a company. It is therefore not important here to know whether a person is actually present.
Objective for local risk for Schiphol
The basic position for Schiphol is that, in time, people will no longer be allowed to live in the 5x10-5 contour (probability of a fatal accident of 1 in 20,000), that no more building will be allowed within the 10-5 (1 in 100,000) contour and that there should be no worsening of the general safety situation.
These objectives are not the same as those for other business activities in the Netherlands. The local risk for these other activities must not, in principle, exceed 1 in 1 million (i.e. 10-6). So the risk that an imaginary person permanently present at the location in question for a year (the location for which the risk has been calculated) will suffer a fatal accident as a result of a company or transportation accident must not be greater than once in a million years. This must have been achieved no later than 2010.
Definition of group risk
The group risk is the probability of a disaster in which a proportion of the people present are killed. The level of risk that is still considered acceptable depends on the size of the disaster. An accident with 100 deaths results in more disruption, suffering and grief than an accident with ten fatal casualties. The limit set for the probability of a disaster with 100 deaths is therefore one hundred times lower than for a disaster with ten deaths.
- See 'External safety risks: the probability of an accident' for a more detailed discussion of risks, causes and policy.
Schiphol: Safety around Schiphol
Noise nuisance caused by air traffic, and the safety risks of Schiphol, have been the subject of occasionally heated public debate for years. How are these complex problems related? And how is the government trying to tackle them? An interactive atlas designed for the Internet allows everybody to understand the noise and risk policy for Schiphol.
