Risks in the Netherlands from European nuclear power plants, 1960-2000

Developments in the risks in the Netherlands of European nuclear power plants

Until 1990, the risk that a random individual in the Netherlands would die as a result of an accident at a nuclear power plant in Europe rose steadily. Thereafter, the risk fell slightly. The current figure of approximately 0.12 per million per year means that the individual probability of being a casualty in the Netherlands of a nuclear disaster is approximately 1 in 8.5 million annually. For the Dutch population as a whole, this is a risk of two deaths a year as a result of an accident at a nuclear power plant in Europe.
The local risk is not very high. By contrast with the risks of companies in the area of external safety - such as LPG stations, airports and the chemical industry - what matters with nuclear power plants is not so much the short-term consequences in the immediate vicinity of an accident but above all the deaths resulting from radiation exposure in the long term in a large area around the location of an accident.
Finally, the graph shows that one third of the risk to which an average Dutch person is exposed is caused by Eastern European nuclear power plants. The old plants in Eastern Europe are much less safe than the Western European plants. However, the distance between them and the Netherlands means that their contribution to the risk in the Netherlands is limited.
The analyses referred to here do not take into account the possible consequences of terrorist attacks.

• See also the information about risks from potential accidents at European nuclear power plants in 2000. The graph above shows the risk for the Netherlands in the period 1960-2000. The risk for 2000 in this graph is the average of the risks shown on the map for 2000 in the various areas of the Netherlands.

Reasons for the developments observed

The increase in the risk prior to 1990 is linked to the increase in the number of nuclear power plants in Europe. The fall in the risk since 1990 was caused by the decrease in the number of nuclear power plants in Western Europe, with the nuclear accident in Chernobyl playing a major role. In addition, less safe nuclear power plants in Eastern Europe have been modernised since 1990, with some of them being closed, thereby reducing the risks. This process is still continuing.

Risks caused by the discharge of radioactive substances by the nuclear power plant in Borssele

In addition to the probability of an accident, we can also calculate the risks caused by discharges that take place during normal operations at a nuclear power plant. For the Dutch central in Borssele, this risk in the same order of magnitude as for an accident and it is therefore also relatively low. For the sake of clarity: these deaths cannot be identified. The figure reflects the increased risk due to exposure to released radioactive substances.

Relevant sections and indicators in the Environmental Data Compendium

• 'External safety risks: the probability of an accident' for a more detailed discussion of risks, causes and policy.
• Sources of risk in the Netherlands, 1999
  A map with the most high-risk locations in the Netherlands.
• Risks from potential accidents at European nuclear power plants, 2000
  A map of the local risks in Europe.