Additional risk in the Netherlands of skin cancer due to increase in UV radiation, 1980-2000

One of the harmful effects of the recent increase in UV exposure is the resultant extra cases of skin cancer. UV exposure is on the increase because of the depletion of the ozone layer.

Additional risk of skin cancer in the Netherlands

Assuming the average UV irradiation in the period 1999-2000, the annual incidence of skin cancer in the Netherlands will increase by almost 2,000 compared to 1990. Of these additional cases, an estimated 30 to 40 will die each year.
If current international policy is continued and fully enforced, a slow recovery of the ozone layer can be expected. In that case, the additional number of cases of skin cancer each year in the Netherlands caused by depletion of the ozone layer will work out at approximately 1,500 towards the middle of this century. It should be pointed out that there are indications that the recovery of the ozone layer may be slowed down by climate change.

Additional risk of skin cancer in Europe

The highest added risk in Europe is found to the south of the Netherlands and is more than twice that in the Netherlands.

Note on the link between UV radiation and skin cancer

An increase in UV radiation can result in an increase in numerous harmful effects on the human health and the environment. One of the harmful effects is that there will be additional cases of skin cancer. UV exposure is on the increase because of the depletion of the ozone layer.
Annual UV irradiation does not immediately result in an increase in the number of cases of skin cancer. Skin cancer occurs only after many years as the result of the exposure of the skin to UV radiation over a longer period. The risks are determined in part by the degree to which the skin is exposed to the UV in the environment. The determining factor is the time spent outdoors (behaviour), especially when the sun is high in the sky. In addition, the use of protective strategies such as clothing and sun tan lotion can reduce the risks.

Technical note

The figure shows the calculated number of additional annual cases of skin cancer compared to 1980 as a result of the increase in UV irradiation in the period 1999-2000 compared to 1980. The results apply if the UV irradiation remains at the average level for 1999-2000 for a longer period of time and if there is no change in exposure behaviour.

The map has been calculated for a population with the sensitivity, age profile and behaviour of the Dutch population. The variations in the risks shown on the map between the Netherlands and other European countries are therefore related solely to fluctuations in local UV exposure.

References

Slaper, H., G.J.M. Velders, J.S. Daniel, F.R. de Gruijl and J.C. van der Leun (1996). Estimates of ozone depletion and skin cancer incidence to examine the Vienna Convention achievements. Nature, Vol. 384, 256-258.

Slaper, H., G.J.M. Velders and J. Matthijssen (1998). Ozone depletion and skin cancer incidence: a source risk approach. Journal of Hazardous Materials 61, 77-84.

Slaper, H., J. Matthijsen, P. N. den Outer and G. J. M. Velders (2001). Climatology of Ultraviolet Budgets using Earth Observation (CUBEO): mapping UV from the perspective of risk assessments, BCRS USP-2 report 00-17, ISBN 90 54 11 32 6.

Relevant information outside of the Environmental Data Compendium

More information about UV radiation can be found on the RIVM website.

RIVM (2002). Natuurverkenning 2, 2000 - 2030. RIVM and the Agricultural Research Service (DLO), Bilthoven.

RIVM (2002). Environmental balance 2002. Kluwer, Alphen aan den Rijn.

Kelfkens, G., A. Bregman, F.R. de Gruijl, J.C. van der Leun, A. Piquet, T. van Oijen, W.W.C. Gieskes, H. van Loveren, G.J.M. Velders, P. Martens and H. Slaper, H., Ozone layer - climate change interactions: Influence on UV levels and UV related effects. ISBN 90 5851 079 4, Dutch National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and climate change, Report 410 200 112.